At the 2014 NHL Entry Draft in Philadelphia, the New Jersey Devils will have the thirtieth overall pick and won’t be permitted to trade up for a better one. Normally, that wouldn’t make me happy, but since the Devils were expected to forfeit their first round selection as part of the sanction for circumventing the cap when signing He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, Dark Lord Ilya Kovalchuk, who has since absconded to Russia to bust out his knees floating around in the KHL like an overgrown bat, I have to be grateful.
After all, even if the player chosen turns out to be a complete bust (which hopefully they won’t, because the Devils are a mediocre—to phrase it optimistically—enough franchise at the moment that we don’t need any more inadequate team members), it won’t be a total loss seeing as the team wasn’t supposed to get anything anyway. Therefore, anybody selected that has any positive impact on the organization is a gift, and anyone chosen who has no effect on the franchise is basically a sunken cost as the team wasn’t intended to have this pick anyhow. Of course, obviously, I hope that the Devils maximize this pick by choosing the player who can contribute the most to this floundering franchise. Now, that raises the question of what can reasonably be expected of a player taken thirtieth overall in the NHL draft in general and the 2014 NHL draft in particular.
What is reasonable to expect of a thirtieth overall pick?
A thirtieth overall pick is a part of the first round of the NHL Draft albeit in the very tail end of the first round. On average, as this article explains, a first round draft pick has a sixty-three percent chance of being a career player (competing in at least 200 NHL games), and approximately half of those career players will compete in at least 500 NHL games. However, it should be understood that while every single player selected first overall has made it to the NHL (in the sense of competing in at least one NHL game), not every thirtieth overall player will be so fortunate. Outside the top five picks, an NHL player is by no means guaranteed, and by the time the second round (which the thirtieth overall pick is close to being in all but semantics), a player has about a one quarter chance of being a career NHL player.
A thirtieth overall player is unlikely to become a star or a superstar, so the Devils will be lucky to get a top six forward or a top four defenseman with this pick. With smart drafting and careful development, the odds of the thirtieth overall pick yielding a top six forward or top four defenseman can be increased, but fans need to keep in mind that not every first rounder is going to be the next Wayne Gretzky. Be positive about what the pick can bring to the organization if developed well, but don’t heap unrealistic expectations on the player. It is unfair to anoint a first overall, nonetheless a thirtieth overall selection, as the savior of a franchise. That puts an unhealthy pressure on a player, so don’t engage in that practice, because it makes no one feel good.
Does it depend on the draft?
Yes, how deep a draft is will shape how many first round selections reach the NHL and how much of an impact those players have once they arrive in the big league. In an insanely deep draft of 2003, every first overall pick (including the big failure that is the Huge Speciman, Hugh Jessiman, who was chosen above such stars as Zach Parise and Ryan Getzlaf) played in the NHL even if it was only for a two day stint. By way of contrast, in the notoriously weak draft of 1999, only twelve of the twenty-eight first round picks went on to become career players. Devils fans can be grateful that Travis Zajac was one of the few success stories that emerged from that draft, and the fact that he is one of the greater talents to emerge from that draft is indeed proof of how thin it was on skill, since Zajac should be a third-line center on a team with depth.
How deep is the 2014 NHL Entry Draft?
For the most part, as this article discusses, scouts have described the 2014 NHL Entry Draft as being average in depth and talent, although lacking standout talents. This lack of standout talent means that there is not a consensus first overall pick, and this lack of clearly defined standout talent has lead some scouts to suggest that the best player of the bunch may be selected at eighth overall, tenth overall, or even later than that. While it might be too much for Devils fans to hope that the best player of the draft will turn out to be the guy taken at thirtieth overall, it is a very real possibility that the lack of standout talent might allow the Devils to find a gem more easily in the 2014 draft than in a draft with more visible talent such as the 2013 one. Of course, this also makes it harder for Devils scouts to precisely identify which of the available players at the thirtieth overall pick have the most potential and can contribute the most to the franchise, but Devils fans will simply have to believe that the amateur scouts can perform the job they were hired to do even under more challenging circumstances.
Will a forward or a defenseman contribute more to the organization?
As anyone who has watched the Devils this year realizes, scoring has been a real challenge for the Devils, and the shootout in particular has cost the team many points that ultimately kept the Devils out of the playoff picture for the second consecutive season. While dubiously competent coaching and defensemen who have no business pinching a puck insisting on doing so anyway at the most inopportune moments had a role in the Devils dropping an obscene amount of leads in games, the team has more depth on defense than on offense, since the firepower of Kovalchuck and Parise cannot be replaced by the indefatigable Jagr, who will probably be retiring after next season and is not a reliable source of scoring for the Devils beyond the 2014-2015 season.
Unless the cupboard has been raided of all remotely promising forward prospects (which is possible, since forwards tend to go quicker than even highly touted defensemen, as shown in the fall of Seth Jones last year), I would prefer to see the Devils draft a forward rather than a defenseman. Only if the drop-off between the best available forward and best available defenseman is quite steep would I like the organization to go after a defenseman.
Which forwards who might be available at the thirtieth overall pick would it be feasible for the Devils to select and what could each of these players bring to the franchise?
Four forward prospects that are likely to be available at the thirtieth overall pick and who can ideally contribute some measure of offense to the organization a couple of years down the line are the following: Connor Bleakley, Nick Shmaltz, Brayden Point, and Brendan Lemieux. Let’s take a closer look at each of these young, promising faces, and see what talents each of them have displayed thus far in their hockey careers that make them worthy of potentially being chosen thirtieth overall in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft.
Our First Prospect: Connor Bleackley
Who is this Connor Bleackley fellow?
Connor Bleakley is a Canadian center who was born in High River, Alberta on July 2, 1996. He stands exactly six feet tall, weighs one-hundred-and-ninety-seven pounds, and shoots right. For those further interested in Connor’s physique and fitness, check out his testing at the NHL Combine:
By the numbers, what would Connor bring to the Devils?
Connor has spent the last two seasons playing with the Red Deer of the Western Hockey League (WHL). During the 2012-2013 season, he played in sixty-six games, scoring nine goals and helping teammates get nine more for a total of 18 points. Throughout the 2012-2013 season, he also appeared on the scoresheet for twenty-eight PIM (Penalty Infraction Minutes). His performance improved during the 2013-2014 season, where he participated in seventy-one games, getting twenty-nine goals, which was tied for the team lead, and thirty-nine assists for a total of sixty-eight points and fourty-eight PIM.
Some highlights of Connor’s junior career in the WHL can be seen here:
As well as here:
You can also evaluate his fighting prowess in this scuffle with Luke Harrison that took place in November of 2013:
Check to see if his fighting technique has improved by comparing that past scuffle to this more recent one with Riley Stadel that transpired in February of this year:
Beyond the numbers, what intangibles does Connor bring?
In November of 2013, Connor was named the captain of the Red Deer, making him one of only three first-time draft-eligible players to captain a Canadian junior team this season. That suggests that Connor has pronounced leadership qualities that he can bring to whatever team drafts him.
These leadership qualities are certainly apparent on the ice, for NHL Central Scouting’s B.J. MacDonald has commented that Connor “deserves every point he has with his strong work ethic” because he “hustles every shift and is not afraid to get in on the forecheck and make things happen.” This description resonates with Devils fans because it invokes memories of forwards like Parise, Gionta, and Elias, who poured every ounce of heart and sweat into each shift, thriving on hard work and determination as much as on talent. A dedicated player like Connor has Devils pick written all over him, since he has the character Lou seeks in members of his team.
How can Connor’s playing style be summed up?
Connor is strong and has good size, which he knows how to use to his advantage. He also has an accurate shot with a quick release that might one day alleviate some of the Devils’ scoring woes. On his skates, he is balanced and quite speedy, so he can locate lanes and soft zones well. B.J. MacDonald depicts his playing style well by stating that Connor is “solid with smart positioning, and he pays attention to detail at both ends of the rink.” That conscientiousness in both parts of the arena will earn him points with Lou, who has a marked preference for forwards of the two-way variety.
Our Second Prospect: Nick Schmaltz
Who is this Nick Schmaltz fellow?
Nick Schmaltz is an American center who shoots right born in Madison, Wisconsin on February 23, 1996. Built along the same lines as Connor, Nick stands exactly six feet tall and weighs one-hundred-and-seventy-two pounds.
By the numbers, what would Nick bring to the Devils?
For the past two seasons, Nick has played for Green Bay in the United States Hockey League. During the 2012-2013 season, he earned fifty-two points, tallying eighteen goals and thirty-four assists, in sixty-four games. Improving his performance this season, he scored an impressive eighteen goals—ten on the powerplay and four that were game-winners—and notched forty-five assists for a total of sixty-three points in fifty-five games.
You can enjoy some of his best moments in Green Bay this past season by watching this video:
Apart from his strong play with Green Bay, Nick has represented the Stars and Stripes well in junior international competition. In silver medal outing at the 2013 Under-18 Ivan Hlinka Memorial tournament, he led the US team in scoring with nine points, recording five goals and four assists.
Here you can see him play against Russia:
You can also watch his performance against Slovakia:
Competing for the US at 2013 World Junior A Challenge, Nick won a gold medal and finished as the tournament’s top scorer with twelve points—four goals and eight assists—in four games. This also led to him being named the Tournament’s Most Valuable Player and to him breaking the previous scoring record of eleven points, which had been held by Kyle Turris in 2006 and Mike Connolly in 2007.
You can listen to Nick talk about his World Junior Challenge gold medal here:
Beyond the numbers, what intangibles does Nick bring?
As evidenced in his abundance of powerplay and game-winning goals, Nick has a knack for making big plays, and his proficiency on the powerplay could be a huge asset for the Devils. He has a very high hockey IQ, and he has a sound defensive game, which will meet Lou’s approval.
How can Nick’s playing style be summed up?
Nick is a stunning offensive player whose quick hands and swift skates work magic on the ice. As Central Scouting’s David Gregory relates, Nick is “a dynamic offensive player. He’s really good at making you think the puck will be taken away from him, but he has such quick hands and can skate with it at full speed and then pull it away from you at full speed.” In a nutshell, Nick is a fast forward who can stickhandle well, thus creating scoring opportunities for himself and others. Such an offensive dynamo would be very useful as a catalyst for sparking some much needed offense on the Devils once Nick is finished maturing at the University of North Dakota, which he has already committed to attending next season and which did such a fine job polishing Zach Parise. Another Sioux would be welcome on the Devils if he could bring back some of that offensive thrust that left when Parise went to the Minnesota Wild.
Our Third Prospect: Brayden Point
Who is this Brayden Point fellow?
Brayden Point is a Canadian center who was born on March 13, 1996 in Calgary, Alberta. He shoots right and will likely drop in the draft because he is only five-foot-ten and weighs a scanty one-hundred-and-sixty pounds, which defines him as a shrimp by hockey standards. Lou will probably not be put off by Brayden’s diminutive stature, as Lou had no qualms about drafting such forwards as Gionta, Gomez, and Parise, none of whom could be classified as behemoths. In judging Brayden, Lou will be more concerned with skill than size, and hopefully Devils fans will adapt a similar mindset if Brayden is taken thirtieth overall. After all, Brayden may be short, but his heart is large, and he plays big.
Watch him take on Graham Black here:
That wasn’t a single occurrence, either, since here he is tangoing with Nick Zajac:
By the numbers, what would Brayden bring to the Devils?
For the past two seasons, Brayden has played for the Moose Jaw Warriors of the WHL. During the 2012-2013 season, he paced all North American rookies and finished fourth among all players in scoring by tallying twenty-four goals and thirty-three assists in sixty-seven games. Improving on this strong showing, Brayden scored thirty-six goals and assisted on fifty-five more for a total of ninety-one points in seventy-two games, leading his team in scoring by an astounding sum of thirty-six points.
You can admire some of the highlights from Brayden’s WHL career here:
In addition to playing magnificently in the WHL, Brayden has represented Canada well in international competition. At the 2013 Ivan Hlinka Memorial tournament he scored four points—one goal and three assists—in five games for Canada’s gold medal winning Team Pacific. As an assistant captain for Team Pacific at 2013 Under-17 World Hockey Challenge, he recorded two goals and three assists. Most recently, as an assistant captain for Team Canada at the 2014 Under-18 World Championship, he contributed two assists in four games to the team’s bronze medal finish.
Beyond the numbers, what intangibles does Brayden bring?
Brayden’s experience as an assistant captain for Team Pacific at the 2013 Under-17 World Hockey Challenge and at the 2014 Under-18 World Championship testifies to his leadership abilities. Brayden is also renowned for his determination and his competitiveness, as Central Scouting’s Dan Marr observes: “What makes him stand out is that he’s one of those guys who won’t be denied. He has that competitive factor where he can go out there, make a difference, and make it at a quick pace.” Leadership, determination, and competiveness are always valuable in members of the Devils.
How can Brayden’s playing style be summed up?
Brayden is an offensive catalyst that plays larger than his slight frame would suggest. He plays a two-hundred-foot game, which is almost always a requirement in Devils forwards, and he is skilled at winning the draw on faceoffs. His smart passes and incredible vision make him an excellent playmaker, but he has the ability to finish scoring chances for himself as well.
Our Final Prospect: Brendan Lemieux
Who is this Brendan Lemieux fellow?
Brendan Lemieux, who was born on March 15, 1996, is the son of Claude Lemieux—the NHL Claude Lemieux who won the Conn Smythe in 1995 when the Devils swept the Detroit Red Wings back in 1995. In case that fact doesn’t provide all you need to know about Brendan, he also happens to be a left winger who stands six feet tall, weighs two-hundred-and-six pounds, and shoots left. To get an idea of what physical attributes Brendan brings to the table, watch him at the 2014 NHL Draft Combine:
By the numbers, what would Brendan bring to the Devils?
For the past two seasons, Brendan has played for Barrie in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL). During his rookie season, he scored six goals and tallied eight assists in forty-two games while also logging fifty-two PIM. The next season, Brendan finished tied for third on his team with fifty-three points (twenty seven goals and twenty-three assists) while serving a team-leading one-hundred-and-forty-five PIM. Following his father’s example of ratcheting up his performance for the postseason, Brendan recorded seven goals and three assists before Barrie was eliminated from the playoffs in eleven games. As part of Team Canada, Brendan also scored an important goal in the championship game against the US at the 2013 Ivan Hlinka Memorial tournament, where Canada claimed the gold.
You can watch some of Brendan’s more exciting skirmishes below:
Also, check out highlights of his goals and assists in the OHL, because that’s the other half of his game:
You can also see him playing against the US at the Ivan Hlinka Memorial Tournament:
Beyond the numbers, what intangibles does Brendan bring?
Like his father, Brendan does not shy away from confrontations and elevates his play for the postseason. His dad also brings valuable guidance that will allow Brendan to continue to develop into a stronger hockey player, as Brendan explains: “He’s my dad; he’s my best friend. We’re always talking and working on what I can do better and what I can do to play at the next level.” Since Brendan’s style is reminiscent to his father’s, Brendan should benefit from his father’s advice and be molded into an even more effective forward as time progresses.
How can Brendan’s playing style be summed up?
Brendan is a fearless player who can often be found sparking scoring opportunities in front of the opposition’s net, and when he isn’t there, he’s probably in the penalty box for getting under an opposing star player’s skin. Far from being a mere goon, he has an excellent one-timer and is a deft playmaker who can create a mixture of assists and goals valuable to a team like the Devils. As Central Scouting’s Dan Marr notes, “Brendan is a guy you can put in front of the net because he can agitate and be a pest; I think that’s in his DNA. He has the same skating stride as his father. He’s also got a great one-timer and can finish. He’s one of these guys who has an equal number of goals and assists, and he brings an important ingredient to a hockey team.” There is much of his father in Brendan, and the same qualities that made Claude so beloved to Devils fans in 1995 could endear Brendan to Devils fans in the future if Brendan is the thirtieth overall pick.
So, what do you think, Devils fans in particular and hockey fans in general? Is one of these four likely to be the best fit for the Devils at thirtieth overall, or is someone else likely to be a better match? Feel free to vote in my poll and leave comments below. Thanks.
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